The Upcoming Storm: Britain’s Exit from the EU

Britain officially departed from the European Union on the last day of January but the departure has created several other challenges, which will precipitate into the further fragmentation of the European Union. For the moment there is a transition period where Britain and the EU are going to negotiate additional arrangements, however, numerous issues are emerging in regards to the new trade deal taking place between Britain and the EU. Britain still prefers to maintain free trade deals with the European Union and flaunt its new openness to the world especially now that it has a greater say on the regulations and standards.

The nation's attitude towards the union was based on four principles. 1) Britain has always rejected the goal of political unity within the EU. 2) Britain only favoured free trade with the EU. 3) Britain preferred foreign policy and security outside of the European framework. 4) Britain has rarely maximized its influence within the EU. Even after Britain’s formal departure, the country still wants to maintain free trade agreements, this illustrates that Britain only cares about prosperity for itself since benefit and harm are the country’s main criteria for decision making. And since Britain has always been resentful of the European Union, Donald Trump has used these envious sentiments of the British to destabilise the European Union and so far, it’s working.

Britain’s departure has caused a problem with the EU budget, with Britain’s departure the burden has shifted on other countries within the European bloc. Britain’s departure has left a financial vacuum to fill to the tune of €12 billion. The majority of the countries from Southern and Eastern Europe don’t want to increase their contributions, hence, the burden to fill this financial vacuum has landed on the richer neighbours within the EU. Britain’s departure has laid down the steps for a Franco-German rivalry to emerge within the EU, where Germany wants to fix the contribution to a 1 percent budget cap while Emmanuel Macron wants to splash the cash.

The reason why EU nations do not want the burden of the financial input is because many still haven’t recovered from the post-2008 financial crisis, where the Euro has prevented many nations in Southern and Eastern Europe from achieving recovery, therefore, they already have national burdens to commit to. Due to the common currency, all the countries within the latter give up control over its interest rates. The reality is that each county has its political objectives within the EU and each country’s economic situation significantly differs, and the common Euro currency doesn’t aid in solving these various issues. This is why countries like Spain, Greece, Portugal Italy, and many others have always remained weak. In reality, the Euro common currency ultimately benefits Germany. Germany still today dominates Europe without utilising a single bullet due to the Euro currency. Where the majority of exports within the EU originate from Germany. Germany is the most determined country to maintain the wellbeing of the EU and Euro common currency since it wants to maintain its position as an economic powerhouse within the continent.

Germany has been the biggest EU contributor up to 20.78 percent. Second is France which is 15.58 percent and with the UK gone, Italy now pays 11.78- making it the third-largest contributor, therefore, Italy is demanding the place it deserves since it has been treated unfairly within the EU. This has created issues for Germany that, if it wants to maintain its strength within the EU it needs to bump up its contribution spending, which is difficult since the country is on a verge of a recession, which can spread throughout the Eurozone affecting Spain, France, The Netherlands and many more. Britain’s exit has caused a shift to occur within the current balance of power in Europe. Thus, the Franco-German competition can accelerate for the gain of dominance within the continent.

France has always sought rejuvenation through Europe to restore its old imperial position. Germany on the other hand seeks redemption through Europe in order to erase its bloody past, and simultaneously build a new role within Europe. Thus, the EU is very important for France and Germany to seek and maintain its objectives. Also, for Germany American security is crucial in order to neutralize the anxiety amongst other nations in the continent, since Germany can’t afford rearmament due to its gruesome past henceforth, for Germany US security is important. France on the other hand, when it comes to security has remained stubborn and reluctant to rely on American security. This is why de Gaulle retreated from NATO’s integrated military structure in 1967, where later France returned in 2009. Macron’s NATO brain dead remarks illustrate the resilience engrained within the French, which is present to this day.

Ever since Donald Trump came to the White House, America has supported Britain’s exit that has resulted in insecurity and anti-EU movements across the continent. Donald Trump used Steve Bannon to cause radicalization across Europe to make way for nationalism and far-right populism to gain ground. Trump has also slapped tariffs on the EU, where his eye is firmly fixed on Angela Merkle’s Germany. The current President has caused more anti- American sentiments in Europe to occur than any other President in history. At the same time, Trump has earned a lot of support in Europe-but only from the far-right groups. Trump possesses a realist mercantilist mindset, where he wants to divide Europe and hinder Germany’s economic growth, and also France’s future ambitions of ever bolstering its  military-independence of the United States. Trump wants to break multilateralism within the EU to diminish it, while at the same time urge the Europeans to increase the “heavy lifting” within the Northern Alliance.

One of the reasons that Trump tore the JCPOA Agreement in the first place, was to damage the European trade with the Iranians. Now Trump is threatening 25 percent tariffs on Britain, France, and Germany if they don’t wage a diplomatic war against Iran. He has also instructed pro-American allies in the Middle East to support Haftar (American-backed) to undermine the Europeans in Tripoli. America prefers a Europe that will carry more responsibility while also hampering any future possibilities of Europe becoming militarily independent of the United States. Really truly America is no one’s ally, not even Britain’s. This is because America’s perception of the world is Hobbesian in nature. Although Britain is trying to strengthen its ties with the United States after exiting the EU, however, America on the other hand doesn’t intend to. This is because America is well aware of the Anglo-American conflict present since 1941. Thus, there is a great possibility of the United States taking strong measures against Britain in the foreseeable future since Britain has ruined its relationship with the EU, leaving America as its only option.

The whole European experiment has failed, where the Europeans tried to be something that they’re not. The upcoming storm can have detrimental effects on continental Europe due to the current shifts within the balance of power. As for America, it wants to wield even a greater amount of influence within Europe, and also weaken it to greater lengths for its self-interests. Where Trump wants to bolster American prosperity while hindering everyone else’s. And ultimately maintain America’s pre-eminence within the Eurasian continent, by making others carry the burden.

Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Mohammed Mustafa