بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
INSTABLE GLOBAL POWERS AND THEIR IMMINENT DECLINE
CHINESE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
China is portraying that the world is now bipolar and it is good for the world, and it’s better than America in aspects of economic policies. Its making deals with every kind of regime, be it dictatorship, authoritarian regime, etc. China is ready to do business with anyone, human rights is not an issue with them. China needs energy and raw material for her growth and in turn China is providing with infrastructure growth to the client countries. The key project for China in the world is the Belt and Road initiative (BRI). It’s an economic corridor linking one side of the planet to the other side of the planet via roads, railways and sea routes. Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East, will all be connected through the BRI to China. This is the image that the Chinese are creating for the world and America is in some concern as they see a power rising in the East which is industrial, economic and a technological power. China and the US confront each other passively in a lot of regions in the world including Africa and Central Asia. China believes that the Global political order created by America and its allies is not working for the majority of the world, and China seems like it wants to change it and bring about a global order with multiple super powers in the world, where you have a balance of power.
Is there a difference between the American capitalism and the Chinese capitalism?
As we see American capitalism has some ideological basis to it, it is based upon the values of secularism but as we see with China the situation is different. China is not advocating any ideology for the world, it only means business. China seems like a communist state but it’s not. There is no particular Chinese version of capitalism because the Chinese leadership is willing to work with any economic model considering that communism failed miserably and China switched to capitalism in order to advance economically. The Chinese see themselves as an ancient civilisation that adopted communism, which didn't work for them, so now they have adopted capitalism. America is trying to play an ideological battle and tell the world to not accept Chinese authoritarianism and rather believe in American democracy and it’s so called freedom. But opposite to this we see, Trump was the most democratically elected leader in the world, American democratic system is authoritarian in many ways than the Chinese system. But in terms of the Chinese perspective, we see Chinese economy was smaller than Finland but now we see it’s at par with America. The America that the people of the world looked up to has its political system in shambles, we can clearly see the situation in America after the Capitol Hill incident. We have people in the power in America who are holding on to democracy to protect their views and as a personal guarantee. We see the actual colours of this man-made democracy that is being hijacked day after day by individuals who will only vote provided their political and capitalist goals are met by the government in question. The confidence in America and its system which it was proud of has been lost by the people of the world. The “American Dream” is no longer sustainable or feasible for the globe in almost every aspect be it environment, human needs and a vibrant society. Hence we see nobody wants to become like America.
Is this vacuum being filled by China and its prosperous looking cities?
Its industrialized economy? Or its technological advancements. We see Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou, etc. as highly developed cities but the reality is different, as we go 200 to 300 miles interior in mainland China, most of the Chinese population resides in rural towns. Population of Hong Kong do not see themselves as people of mainland China, similarly Taiwan is a rebel province of China. Hence there are significant domestic issues in China. But the image it creates in front of the world is of a developed consolidated super power, but the truth is quite far from it. We have seen mass demonstrations in China against its COVID policies and its repression and genocide of the Uyghur Muslims.
With all of this instability can China become a super power in the world?
Can it be at a position to rule the world? We can see that China is just an economic power and nothing more than that. In order for China to be a global power it needs to have a vision for the world, it needs to have a global ideology. Instead of having an ideology, China only has racism to offer which is clearly demonstrated by its treatment of the Uyghur Muslims now and the treatment of the Tibetans decades ago. Also China not being an ideological state is only a regional threat to America. China historically has also not expanded its borders before in the past 4000 years of its history. China doesn’t have any colonies historically nor any military bases in foreign lands. Chinese don't believe that their traditions and values are universal, but are their own, unique for their people. Hence we see beyond economics and technology, China doesn’t seem to have any dreams of global domination. China seems to replace the IMF and build its own AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) but the reality is that China has a massive population of over 1.4 billion people to feed. For such a big population China needs energy and raw material. The Chinese economy is primarily based on converting the raw materials into finished goods and then export of the commodities. If this import and export of the raw materials and finished goods is stopped then it will be a big issue for China, as America controls the global trade and the World Bank and IMF, it can easily pull the plug off for China. Hence as an alternative we see China creating the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) to engage with Africa and Central Asia hence bypassing American economic hegemony. China wants to play very safe with America and its allies, hence we see in the case of Ukraine war, China is not completely on Russia’s side. America is trying to bleed Russia to death, if the same thing happens to China, it will certainly be destroyed.
Are China and Russia allies?
Since China’s stand with Russia is not so concrete and Russia can’t rely on China on the Ukraine war similarly China if in case it invades Taiwan, reliance on Russia comes into question. So overall there are no allies of China if it tries to impose its influence on its neighborhood, global domination is far far away. Countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and other African countries, all want Chinese money but ideologically nobody stands with China shoulder to shoulder against America and the West. We also see America supporting and building trade relations with China during the time of Cold War to divide the Soviet bloc. America was one of the best trade partners of China at that time, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, China was ignored by America as another poor third world nation whose use has come to fruition at that time. China developed and became rich and powerful and today it became an economic rival to America. So today we see America in order to contain China which seems like the conflict of the future, has armed the neighbors of China, like Japan, South Korea, Australia and India, etc. If China wants to invade Taiwan it has to do it at a time where it's almost guaranteed victory, otherwise a longer engagement will bleed China to death. We see Taiwan as only an hour away from China, and for America it will have to cross the Pacific Ocean, hence a swift victory will be easy for China, but a longer engagement might be costlier for China because of the rearmament of China’s neighbors by America. Individually neighbors of China are not as strong as her, but collectively they can be a potent threat. Hence America has built and arc of defense around China in case of war and has setup its proxies in the region. For China, Taiwan it’s just a rebel province. Chinese don’t want to bomb Taiwan to submission but to change the people’s opinion and integrate it back to the mainland. But that aspect of China is very poor as we see the situation in Hong Kong who are Chinese people but it has been difficult for China to integrate them ideologically. Similarly, Taiwanese are Chinese people and same is the case with them, as when it comes to social issues you need values and a very robust ideology, which China doesn’t have. Hence we see countries aligning with America which have a world view rather than China. People of Hong Kong and Taiwan alike want to be American rather than Chinese.
Has capitalism failed to unite the world?
As we see China, America and the West all of these countries are capitalist. We see France, Germany and Britain are all capitalist countries but all of them have gone to war with each other several times. We see America the flag bearer of Capitalism at odds with the Chinese who are also in line of being the forerunners of the same ideology, but we see all of these nations identifying themselves as different ethnicities and historic civilisations, so we see huge differences among nations following the same ideology of capitalism. Here we see nationalism has preceded capitalism as a world view. France is an older culture than the creation of America, same goes with China being much older as a nation than the ideology of capitalism. We see America being a new nation in comparison to other civilisations. It was created by people from Britain who established a colony in North America in present day state of Virginia and eventually they became rebels and who established the first ten colonies calling themselves the United States of America.
Is China facing internal problems?
We see India about to become the most populous nation in the world, whereas China on the other hand is going through a massive demographic crisis. China’s biggest resource which is its young population, the cheapest labour in the world is depleting. The whole economic model of the country is based on this avenue. The growth rate of China grew at its slowest pace on 2021 in its entire history, and in the upcoming two years the Chinese population growth rate will start to decline. Hence the unlimited supply of cheap Labour for China is coming to an end. The much bigger problem is the ageing population of China. 20% of the Chinese population is over 65 years of age. In the next 20 years the old age pensioners will increase to 30% - 40% which will be a huge burden on the Chinese economy. This is as of now the major issue for China, instead of becoming a global super power. China needs a younger population who can support the old. China needs consumers for its products. China cannot depend on the west to be the leading consumer market, they are rather looking to Africa where they need a political reform for China to get in. It is in Africa where the future political clash between China and the West might be seen.
CAN THERE BE A REVOLT IN AMERICA?
America has been involved in two major wars with Iraq and Afghanistan which it thought to be over in months but it took many years and became protracted wars which drained American assets and economy to a high extent. The leaders of America because of these wars, neglected the local issues and in general the population of the country, hence the country being at a standstill in terms of social and economic reforms. The rise of Donald Trump is a symptom of political failure and the rise of polarisation in America. Texas being a fault line in the American geopolitical landscape wants autonomy as the leaders have failed America. America has two great oceans to protect itself from outside forces, only an internal division will collapse the American nation as quoted by Abraham Lincoln. Four retired American army generals were quoted saying if Donald Trump doesn’t win the next elections, the army might undertake a coup. They believe the conditions that led to the American Civil War (1861-1865) are here today.
The Capitol Hill riot report stated that serving army personnel were part of the orchestrated riot to occupy the White House. People in the army refused to accept that Joe Biden won the election and it was all rigged. We see the American political game spilling over to its ‘colonies’, like Saudi Arabia. Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) made a decision to reduce the production of oil in order to support the Republicans in America to win. We see the blatant selfishness of the American politicians working against fellow politicians with foreign rulers. Many politicians are prepared to do whatever is required to stay in power. It seems like history is repeating itself as the same thing happened to the Roman Empire before its collapse, where politicians started doing things which benefited them on a personal level. Only 10-11 neocon politicians made the decision to go to war with Iraq which they thought would end in months. Donald Trump has convinced half of America that the country is run by a small secret group of people. He told people what they wanted to hear and fooled the American public to vote for him. He promised change but he was just trying to be in power. We see the American army refused to being used against the BLM (Black Lives Matter) movement.
CRITICAL CONCLUSIONS
If American internal problems grow like this, external affairs would not be a major priority for the American leadership. If something happens in the Muslim world at that stage it would surely not be a priority for America. If an Arab Spring 2.0 happens, Sisi is thrown out of power in Egypt, Pakistan faces a coup from the military, or Central Asia sees an Islamic revolution, America is not in a position to invest itself externally.
O Muslims! We see America with internal issues, China with massive domestic problems, Russia bleeding to death in Ukraine. The only region which has a potential to overthrow the current system and bring about a revolution is the Muslim world. The current system of kufr which is capitalism and which is maintained and sustained by America, we see that America is busy in its internal issues and not ready to engage with any external conflicts. The time is very unique and ripe for Muslims to bring about the change needed by this dying world and establish Islam on this earth. InshaAllah we will see with our own eyes the fulfilment of the prophecy of RasulAllah (saw): Tamim al-Dari (ra) reported: I heard the Messenger of Allah (saw) say,
«ليَبْلغنَّ هذا الأمرُ ما بلغ الليلُ والنهارُ، ولا يترك اللهُ بيت مَدَر ولا وَبَر إلا أدخله الله هذا الدين، بعِزِّ عزيز أو بذُلِّ ذليل، عزا يُعِزُّ الله به الإسلام، وذُلا يُذل الله به الكفر»
“This matter will certainly reach every place touched by the night and day. Allah will not leave a house or residence but that Allah will cause this Deen to enter it, by which the honourable will be honoured and the disgraceful will be disgraced. Allah will honour the honourable with Islam and he will disgrace the disgraceful with unbelief.”
Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Zeeshan Akhtar
References:
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The Muslim World Between China & US | Adnan Khan | ISLAMIC OASIS LIVE #56
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/09/is-the-us-really-heading-for-a-second-civil-war