Answers to Questions
Political Developments in Kurdistan and Iran
(Translated)

Question:

On 06/01/2018, Iran accused the Kurdistan region of being behind the protests in Iran, and on 07/01/2018 the Kurdistan region denied this accusation. It has been noted during the massive demonstrations that took place in the Kurdistan region, especially in the province of Sulaymaniyah on 19/12/2017, the news reports that said that Iran played a role in them. Can it be said that the Kurdistan region had a hand in the protests in Iran on 28/12/2017 as a case of tit for tats? In other words:

1- Is what took place in Iran and in the region a reaction to an action? 2- Did they move spontaneously or an external force moved them? 3- If so, who is this force? Are these protests meant to change the regime in the region or Iran? And May Allah reward you with the good.

Answer:

The two events are not an act of reaction to an action, and Iran's accusations to Erbil are but a form of political confusion as a result of internal events. Erbil is currently preoccupied with its crisis, which is almost subduing its entity, and it has no ability in the current circumstances to move the street in Iran! The political confusion was clear when Iran accused several forces for the protests; Iranian officials have blamed foreign forces. Iran's envoy to the United Nations, Ghulam Ali Khoshro, said on Friday: “that Tehran had strong evidence that the "demonstrators" had clearly received guidance from abroad "... BBC Arabic 07/01/2018) Therefore, the accusation of Iran to Erbil is within this confusion: (The Secretary of the Iranian Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezai, said on 6/1/2018 that details of the scenario of events in Iran were planned in Erbil, the Kurdistan region of Iraq ... Russia today 07/01/01 2018). The region denied the accusation through Sven Dzii, the spokesman of the region (previous source). Therefore, the issue is not a reaction to an action, but each has its objectives and conditions. However, the two events began spontaneously and then surrounded by external motives to achieve objectives related to the region and Iran. In accordance with the course of events, this is explained as follows:

First: Events in the Region

1- Various news agencies reported that on 19/12/2017, demonstrations in Sulaymaniyah broke out among teachers and employees who were not paid for months, and then the demonstrations included large sections of the population in Sulaymaniyah province, and then spread to other parts of the province including parts of the province Erbil. The rapid involvement of the masses in these demonstrations is a result of the people's dissatisfaction with the economic affairs of the region after the decline of the major oil resources there due to Baghdad’s control of the province of Kirkuk and other pressures exerted by Baghdad, especially the closure of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah airports for foreign flights, which increased the difficulties of traveling abroad, forcing travelers to transit through Baghdad International Airport. What added insult to injury is the accusation of local and influential government officials of corruption and acquisition of wealth in the region. The demonstrations spread like wildfire, especially in areas where the influence of the Kurdish parties against Masoud Barzani and his Kurdistan Democratic Party is high. The displacement of Kurdish families from Kirkuk and others into the region has been exacerbated by worsening local living conditions with the fears of internal opposing movements. All of this indicates that the movements were spontaneous.

2- These protests were directed mainly against the government of Erbil, which is controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Barzani Party, who is hiding after his resignation from the presidency of the territory behind his nephew Nechirvan Barzani, and this is understood in many ways, including:

A - The demonstrations broke out starting in the province of Sulaymaniyah, the province controlled by the movements and parties opposed to the British agent Massoud Barzani. The base of the Movement for Change is in Sulaymaniyah, and Talabani's strong wing in the Patriotic Union party is in Sulaymaniyah also. These parties are able to provoke and organize the events although they are not able to control the entire course of the events.

B – In Nechirvan’s statement, it is understood as if the demonstrations are directed against his government: “The President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Nechirvan Barzani, warned of the existence of a "big conspiracy" drawn against the region and it is too large and beyond anyone’s imagination", and he pointed to the presence of “parties who want to create chaos in the region and the to divert the demonstrations from its track and spread of violence”. He added: " There are hidden hands trying to cause chaos in Kurdistan and we are going to prevent it,” referring to the parties, which he did not name, "that supports those efforts towards chaos, but the security authorities in the region will face these cases firmly ... " He explained: "We are facing a serious threat and a plot bigger than anyone’s imagination, what happened in the province of Sulaymaniyah are attempts to undermine security and stability," calling for the need for unity and cooperation of all to overcome them. (Kurdish Basnews website, 21/12/2017)

By this he is pointing to Kurdish parties that opposed the referendum strongly in Sulaymaniyah, and with links to the Americans and their followers in the capital Baghdad and Tehran. From those parties that fueled protests and demonstrations against the Barzani government: the Movement for Change, which became after the split from the National Union party the second political force in the 2009 elections in Kurdistan. After the protests, the Movement for Change, led by Gorran and the Islamic Group, withdrew from the government of Erbil, and the leader of the group, Yassin Hassan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera,"After opening fire on the demonstrators, the Islamic Group and the Movement for Change decided to withdraw from this government completely, and we demand that the government is dissolved immediately and forms a government of national salvation." (Al Jazeera Net 21/12/2017)

The BBC on 26/12/2017 also reported the position of one of the leaders of the Movement for Change, Yusuf Muhammad, and the President of the Parliament of the Kurdistan region of Iraq. He resigned in order to weaken the position of the government of Erbil in front of the protests; the President of the Parliament of the Kurdistan region of Iraq announced his resignation in protest against what he described as the control of a group of people and certain groups of the legitimate authority. Yusuf Muhammad strongly criticized the control of that group over politics, economics, land, wealth and all aspects of life, as well as the unjust distribution of the region." He said that the United States' rejection of the referendum, which was represented in a letter sent by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was a golden opportunity lost by the regions government… (BBC 26/12/2017) This is a reference to the man’s subordination and his movement.

3- Thus, the start of the demonstrations from the province of Sulaymaniyah, controlled by the parties opposed to the Barzani’s Kurdish Democratic Party, the participation of leaders of these parties in the demonstrations, the arrest by the security forces of some of those leaders, the withdrawal of these parties from the government of Erbil to weaken it, calling it to dissolve, the resignation of the head of Parliament months before the presumed date of the elections, and the threat of the government of Al-Abadi in Baghdad to intervene, all indicate that the beginning, although spontaneous, but had a second dimension of external motives that surrounded the natural movement in order to achieve objectives related to the region.

This second dimension is the result of the pressure of local groups in Kurdish opposition to Barzani's influence, as well as the pressures of Baghdad to topple the Barzani government in Erbil. in addition to what was heard in Turkey, Iran and Baghdad of the need to punish those responsible for the referendum adventure of the secession of Kurdistan, and all of these parties  and regimes are loyal to America, if added to this what is noticed of Trump's policy in the region, and with the slogan "America First", that America is longer sufficed by its policy being executed in the areas where the British agents are located, but if their interests in some areas require, it will punish or even eliminate them , as happened in the corruption campaign in Saudi Arabia, and as is happening today with the leaders of the People's Congress in Sanaa after Salih’s killing. Thus, America pushes its local and regional agents for more pressure on the government of Barzani to topple it and end the British domination over the government of Erbil. If it cannot do this soon, it will set the circumstances for that through successive pressures.

This is probably what happened and is happening in Kurdistan

Second: the events in Iran

1- The demonstrations that broke out on 28/12/2017 began in protest against the economic situation and living conditions of the people, the high unemployment, poverty and high prices; it is reported that the unemployment rate is very high. The Iranian Interior Minister, Abdul Ridha Rahmani Fadhli, revealed in a press conference on 1/10 / 2017 that "the unemployment rate currently exceeds 12% while the percentage in some Iranian cities reached 60%, including Ahwaz (Arab) and Kermanshah (Kurdish) and Baluchistan. The unemployment rate among scientific certificate holders and university graduates is very high ..." 2/10/2017). Reports indicate that 21% of college graduates are unemployed, and that 15 million Iranians are living below the poverty line which means that the results of the application of the capitalist system is reflected negatively on the general population in the country as is the case in all countries that apply this Western system, and since the capitalist economic system is applied in Iran, there are poor distribution of wealth, accumulation of wealth in the hands of the rich and deprivation of many people from it. Additionally, there is failure to address the issue of poverty, there are banks that operate with usury, and there is the application of a system of unjust capital taxes linked to the policies and recommendations of the International Monetary Fund.

And before the recent events, a delegation from the International Monetary Fund visited Tehran on 18/12/2017; it is always holding annual consultations with the Iranian government. The head of the delegation, Catriona Purfield, addressed the Iranian officials: "In the face of this uncertainty and increased risks to the Iranian Financial System, the government should accelerate the restructuring and capitalization of banks and credit institutions. She added: "The quality of assets should be started immediately, the loans of related parties should be assessed, and a time-bound plan of action should be put in place to recapitalize banks and remedy bad debts…the cost of recapitalizing banks through the issue of long-term government bonds can be covered," she added (Iran's Al-Alam official page 19/12/2017). And the government's implementation of these demands result in high prices, unemployment and poverty leading people into harsh living conditions and into protesting against the regime, and led people to express their suffering in all ways.

2- The protests began in the eastern Iranian city of Mashhad, the slogan was "No to high prices", but soon spread to 80 cities and towns. Thousands of young people and the working class participated and were angry at the corruption of officials, unemployment and the widening gap between the poor and the rich. "The protests were the result of three factors: first, the IMF's tough economic adjustment policies, and the second, weakness of the government and officials in solving economic problems, and the last; to avoid transparency and accountability of decisions taken by the government," Ahmad Tavakkoli, chairman of Iran’s Transparency and Justice Organization, said in an interview with Fars News Agency on 30/12/ 2017" All this should be added to Iran's external expenditures on the militias and their supporters in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

It makes the economic problem a big burden on the Iranians, prompting them to protest and even more than this; to accuse the regime of betraying the lives of its people. "Many Iranians believe that there is no need for their government’s help to Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad's regime in Syria, and Houthi’s in Yemen, but is a betrayal " (Arabic 21: 01/01/2018) All this shows that the start of the protests was spontaneous with an economic factor. But the regime met it with force and resulted in deaths and injuries. Some reports indicate that the number of detainees since the beginning of the protests on 28/12/217 has increased to more than 1,700 detainees. (BBC Arabic 07/01/2018)

3- It is known that any economic protests if delayed in treatment, the right treatment, especially if met with force, will be accompanied by political protests, and that what happened. Political slogans were added to the economic slogans against the regime and those who maintain it, and criticized the intervention of the regime in the wars of the region and spending billions of dollars on them. The protests began to be dominated by political trends opposed to the regime and an attack on the symbols of the regime and its leaders. Then the events were exploited by Europe and America; the European media appeared to promote it, especially the British like the BBC and its television. For his part, French President Macron said in response to a question by Al-Hayat Newspaper about the events in Iran, published by the newspaper on 4/1/2018: "The demonstrations reflect the openness of Iranian civil society. This made me contact President Rouhani to remind him of the need to avoid violence and allow freedom of expression for citizens. We will wait and see the required openness of Iran by responding to the demonstrators so that we can judge the course of things in preparation for the French Foreign Minister, Le Drian’s, visit scheduled to Iran and then my visit to this country.” And he called for continuing a permanent dialogue with Tehran. But the intervention of Europe to exploit these events is not worth stopping at because it is hardly effective.

4- What is worth stopping at is America’s intervention. The American President Trump tweeted on his twitter page and said on 1/1/2018. “The people of Iran are finally acting against the brutal corrupt Iranian regime. All of the money that President Obama so foolishly gave them went into terrorism and into their “pockets”. The people have little food, big inflation and no human rights, the U.S is watching.” The White House press secretary said: "The Trump administration is deeply concerned. Thousands of these protesters have been imprisoned by the regime," adding: "We will not remain silent as the Iranian dictatorship represses the basic rights of its citizens and will hold Iran’s leaders accountable for any violations.” (Iraq electronic newspaper 10/1/20180) Many of the American officials, led by President Donald Trump, have supported the Iranian demonstrators against the government from the first day. The United States' permanent representative to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, told the Security Council on Friday that America supports the Iranian protestors, she said, "The people of Iran are crying out for freedom for themselves, prosperity for their families and dignity for their nation,". Washington's call for Security Council meeting has angered other council members, including Russia, whose delegate described the Iranian protests as an "internal affair." (BBC Arabic 7/1/2018). Washington’s call for the meeting of the Security Council was evidence of America's riding the wave of demonstrations, and the speed of the call surprised the members of the Security Council. “The members of the Security Council were surprised with Haley’s call to an urgent meeting of the Security Council to discuss the protests in Iran, and was forced to put pressure on the Russian opposition to the meeting,” BBC correspondent Barbara Pelt. The US envoy to the Council said that Washington stands "without hesitation with those in Iran who seek freedom for themselves and prosperity for their families and dignity for their nation" (BBC Arabic 06/01/2018)

5- This raises the question: Does America’s support for the demonstrations in Iran mean that they are working to overthrow the regime in Iran? Or does it have another goal to achieve by riding the wave of demonstrations in Iran? To answer this, we say the following:

As for saying that America's support for the moves is to change the regime is incorrect because they said that themselves; the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran, Andrew Beck, said to Al-Hayat Newspaper published on 4/1/2018: “We are only talking about the protection of demonstrators and in the end we want to see the regime change its behaviour in more than one way, but specifically with the demonstrators" and stressed that " the administration wants a change in the behaviour of the regime and does not want to change it in Iran... " [translated from Arabic]. America and its role in the regime is known; we mentioned this previously in the “Answer to Question” on 21/08/2013: (The role of America in the Iranian revolution was clear from the beginning ... and all political actions in the region carried out by Iran are all in conformity with the American projects ...), and we also said in another answer  “Answer to Question” on 23/02/2017 (Thus, the Iranian role in the region is a US policy carefully studied, and that this role expands and shrinks according to the requirements of US policy and according to circumstances), and therefore, the declared support of America for the protests is not for a change  of the current system