Question:

Drone experts in the United States of America saw [“that the two drones that crashed over the Kremlin last Wednesday, evaded a large number of defense systems in and around Moscow, indicating that they might be launched from inside Russia. (Al Jazeera, Reuters, 6/5/2023)]. The drone attack took place on the Kremlin Palace in the heart of Moscow on the night of 3/5/2023. The Secretary of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament said that [the attack on the Kremlin was planned by Moscow. (Al-Jazeera, 3/5/2023)]. The question is: Is this attack an external plan by Ukraine as Russia accuses it? Or is it an internal arrangement by Moscow as the American experts said and as Ukraine said? In other words, who is behind this attack after these various statements?

Answer:

Yes, the Russian presidency announced that it had thwarted an attack by two drones on the Kremlin, describing it as a "terrorist". Ukraine immediately denied any involvement in the attack, accusing Moscow of deliberately highlighting it in the media to justify any possible escalation of the conflict. The Kremlin said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not harmed. In order to understand the aims of this attack, the following must be noted:

First: More than a year after the war in Ukraine that Russia started in February 2022, some stagnation has affected the battle fronts, with the exception of the continuous fighting in the city of Bakhmut for eight months and some Russian missile strikes deep in Ukraine, the rest of the fronts are witnessing stagnation, and this stagnation has two reasons; the first is natural due to winter, and the second is due to the lack of ammunition on both sides. With the continuous talk of an expected Ukrainian attack, the attack on the Kremlin would have ended the state of stagnation on the fronts, and an escalation is likely.

Second: The West, led by America and through continuous and gradual support for Ukraine, was able to drain Russia. The head of the Russian Wagner Group, which is fighting mainly in the city of Bakhmut, constantly yells about the lack of ammunition, and even accuses parties within the Russian military establishment of intentionally doing so, especially since the rest of the fronts were almost stopped during winter. Likewise, the Russian strikes in the depths of Ukraine often take the form of waves, meaning that Russia may not have enough of these missiles and planes to carry out continuous attacks, as if it collects the quantity it manufactures within a month, then hurls them inside Ukraine, and this is another manifestation of the state of depletion in the country. Russia, in addition to the lack of sensitive parts in the Russian military industry due to Western sanctions. Although the news also talks about the depletion of ammunition in the West as well. Although this is true, the West's military industry is more capable than Russia's to bridge this gap.

Third: As a result, the Russian army, despite its recruitment campaigns, appears to lack offensive ground capabilities in particular, and is building trenches along the fronts as evidence of its fear of the upcoming Ukrainian attack with advanced Western weapons. Indeed, the chief of the Wagner Group has described the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive as "a tragedy” for Russia, and if this is compared with what resembles the absence of the Russian Air Force, that weapon that was completely unable to impose air control in the skies of Ukraine and direct some strikes only from afar. This Russian weakness is obvious to the West and to America that is running the war behind the scenes in Ukraine. Because of this, war planning has taken on dimensions against Russia that were not envisioned at the outbreak of the war, especially since America and the West are still succeeding in banishing the specter of the nuclear war. This is because all Russian insinuations that amount to the threat of using nuclear weapons have been met with widespread criticism, and even Russia's intimidation of its recklessness and America's reaction.

Fourth: In light of all these circumstances, this summer will most likely be volatile and out of control from many restrictions, including that the war is taking place inside Ukraine only. Several attacks have taken place inside Russia without Ukraine claiming responsibility for them, and even the Russian resistance was invented, that is rejecting Putin's rule as if it was responsible for the attacks inside Russia. This attack on the Kremlin Palace in the heart of the capital, Moscow, severely hurts Russia's pride, and Russia classified it as an attempt to assassinate Russian President Putin, and no matter where the two drones were launched from, the fact that they reached above the domes of the Kremlin buildings and their explosion directly above the Kremlin shows Russia's weakness.

Fifth: Because of the shock in Moscow and all of Russia at the audacity of the attack, which Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out, strong statements came out indicating the severity of the shock among Russian officials:

1- The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated: [The only option after the Kiev regime's attack on the Kremlin is to eliminate Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and his entourage. In a telegram post, Medvedev said, 'Moscow is left with no option other than the physical elimination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his clique.’ (Sputnik, Russia, 3/5/2023)].

2- Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin [demanded the use of "weapons capable of deterring and destroying the terrorist regime in Kiev" in response to a two drones attack on the Kremlin. Volodin added - in a statement on Telegram - that Russia should not negotiate with the Ukrainian president after the "alleged" attack, which Kiev denied responsibility for, indicating that negotiations with Zelensky's regime "are not possible, as he threatens the security of Russia, Europe and the entire world" (Al-Jazeera Net, 3/5/2023)].

Thus, the magnitude of the shock that permeates Russia is evident from the attack by the two drones on the Kremlin.

Sixth: As for Russia being the one who orchestrated the attack in order to escalate the war in Ukraine, this is unlikely, on the one hand, as it hurts its pride, and is a slap to its greatness, and a warning that no one fears it or its president anymore. On the other hand, Russia is unable to effectively escalate the war in Ukraine unless with nuclear weapons. It does not have the will to use them inside Ukraine for fear of America's reaction. What also negates the possibility that Russia struck itself is that Russia has directly accused America of being involved in the attack, and this is also unprecedented and indicates the severity of the shock in Moscow from the audacity of the attack. The relevant statements show this:

1- The official spokesman for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, stated that the United States of America is behind Ukraine's attack on the Kremlin with the help of drones, and it chose the targets of Kiev. This came in Peskov's press statement today, Thursday, 4/5/2023, where he continued: “Attempts to disown this, both in Kyiv and in Washington, are, of course, absolutely ridiculous. We know very well that decisions about such actions, about such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kyiv but in Washington, and Kyiv does what it is told and the orders have come to do so.” America has denied this through the White House National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby who said live on MSNBC: "We’re still trying to gather information about what happened, and we just don’t have conclusive evidence one way or the other. I just saw Dmitry Peskov's comments this morning, the allegations that we were somehow involved in this matter, I can assure you that there was no involvement by the United States. Whatever it was, it didn't involve us…” (RT, 4/5/2023).

2- For all of this, it can be said that America has begun to shift the war in Ukraine and lead it to a further extent, escaping many of the restrictions against Russia because of the weakness and depletion it is witnessing in Russia. Rather, the attack on the Kremlin represents a personal threat to the Russian president. It appears from the statements of the Kremlin spokesman, Peskov, that Russia understood the message, so it wanted to tell America that it knows that America is behind the attack, but that Russia refrains from threatening America directly due to its fear of it, and is sufficed with threatening Ukraine and threatening to eliminate its president, Zelenskyy.

3- What also indicates that the attack is a challenge to Russia planned by America, is the removal of the Ukrainian president from Ukraine, as it suddenly appeared on the morning of the attack that he was on a visit to Helsinki, Finland, and after that his plane appeared to land in Amsterdam in the Netherlands, and then it appeared after that the German Chancellor’s program  would receive Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, and all this in order to spare the President of Ukraine Zelenskyy from Russia's reaction, i.e., to prevent it from eliminating him, as Medvedev demanded.

4- As for America itself, it appeared as if it did not want to comment on this incident, and even showed skepticism about the Russian narrative. [US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said he had seen reports from Moscow of an alleged drone attack by Ukraine on the Kremlin, but "He cannot in any way validate them.” And he said, “We simply don’t know.” Blinken added, “We’ll see what the facts are and it is really hard to comment or speculate on this without really knowing what the facts are.” (CNN Arabic, 3/5/2023)].

5- What indicates the role of America in the attempt to kill the President of Russia, Putin, is that the American documents that were leaked during the past months and were exposed in April 2023, which talked about the killing of Russian President Putin as one of the war scenarios. [It seems that the process of leaking classified documents from the US Department of Defense, the Pentagon contains many surprises and secrets, including what the New York Times revealed about a secret intelligence document that it obtained that includes details of plans developed to deal with emergencies after a year of war in Ukraine. The document includes an analysis conducted by the US Defense Intelligence Agency that identifies four hypothetical scenarios, and how it could affect the course of the conflict in Ukraine, if it occurs. Hypothetical scenarios include: "The killing of Russian President Vladimir Putin... and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy... and a change in the leadership of the Russian armed forces... and Ukrainian strikes on the Kremlin." (Al-Sharq Newspaper, 12/4/2023)].

Seventh: In summary, the attack by the two drones on the Kremlin Palace in Moscow is a dangerous escalation of the war in Ukraine.

It points out that America as well as Ukraine have enough agents inside Russia to launch powerful attacks that may change the course of the war. Explosions have begun and taken on an increasing nature inside Russia targeting railways, oil and electricity facilities, etc., meaning that the process of transferring the war from Ukraine to Russia is already underway. It is very bold, especially since the Russian army is greatly depleted in Ukraine and it is difficult for it to carry out effective attacks that change the course of the war. Likewise, the West, led by America, continues to support Ukraine with more advanced weapons to change the course of the war in favour of Ukraine, bearing in mind that the current course of war is not in Russia’s favour after Ukraine regained Kherson and areas of Kharkiv, as well as Russia’s severe losses in its continuous attack since the eight-month on Bakhmut without capturing it.

These are the dimensions of this attack on the Kremlin in Russia, and those were its background. All of this indicates that Russia's military and security capacity has been shaken, to the point that it was unable to protect its political center in the heart of Moscow! It is true that the fighting is not only between Russia and Ukraine, America and the West support Ukraine financially and morally, however, Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues for more than a year and Russia’s stability is still severely shaken in the areas it occupied in Ukraine with great financial and human losses. All of this indicates Russia's distance from the name of the superpower is evident. It seems that Russia is aware of this, and that is why it has made every effort to fully re-consider this so-called occupation of Bakhmut before Russia's celebration on 9/5/2023, but it has failed to this day despite the intensification of its attacks and the mobilization of the Wagner Group.