بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
(Translated)
Question:
Al-Araby Al-Jadeed published on its website on 21/1/2025: “... Nawaf Salam left after meeting with President Joseph Aoun this evening, Tuesday, at Baabda Palace, carrying a black file in his hand without revealing whether he had submitted any draft names or a ministerial formation...”, noting that: After a presidential vacancy that exceeded two years due to political differences, the Lebanese parliament elected Aoun as president of the country on 9/1/2025. Four days after his election, Aoun tasked Nawaf Salam with forming a new Lebanese government. (Al-Jazeera 20/1/2025).
What is happening in Lebanon regarding the swiftness of agreement on the appointment of Army Commander Joseph Aoun as president on 9 January 2025 after a vacancy in the position that lasted for more than two years, then a few days later the agreement on Salam Nawaf as prime minister on 13 January 2025? How did all this happen so quickly? Then does this speed mean that work was and is still being prepared to change the face of Lebanon internally and externally, or is it a usual change, as is happening in the region?
Answer:
In order to clarify the answers to the above questions, we must review the following:
First: The major political developments in the region and the world are what led to this rapid transformation in Lebanon. Then Aoun was elected President of Lebanon, and Nawaf Salam was assigned as prime minister. To clarify this, we say:
1- Shortly after the assassination of the leaders of Iran’s party by the Jewish entity and before the ceasefire, calls emerged in Lebanon to elect a president and end the vacancy in the position. These calls were led by opponents of Iran’s party, such as Samir Geagea’s group, which openly rejected its supporting of Gaza in the war. This was an exploitation of the situation resulting from the war, and it was through advice from the European envoys who were touring Lebanon in parallel with the tours of the American envoy Hochstein, which focused on the ceasefire. Iran’s party was denouncing these calls from the Lebanese opposition.
2- After 12 failed sessions to elect a president in Lebanon during the past two years, the various political forces in Lebanon agreed almost suddenly, Army Commander Joseph Aoun was chosen to be the new president to end the vacancy in the position. Iran’s party had announced that its candidate was Suleiman Franjieh. (Al-Alam Channel, 7/1/2025) Franjieh is affiliated with the Iranian axis and the defunct regime of Bashar, then Suleiman Franjieh announced the withdrawal of his candidacy in order to reach an agreement.
3- The supporters of the Iran axis (its party and the Amal Movement) did not elect Joseph Aoun in the first session, meaning the vote failed due to not obtaining two-thirds (86 votes). Then in the second session and after a meeting with these parliamentary blocs, they voted for him and he obtained 99 votes. Thus, the vote for Joseph Aoun in the second session was aimed at showing that if it were not for the votes of Iran’s Party and the Amal Movement, Joseph would not have won the presidency. Although this has some meanings in that the influence of Iran’s followers still exists and that they influence the vote, their abandonment of obstruction, which they are capable of, means a retreat.
4- On 13/1/2025, a new Prime Minister was appointed for Lebanon, Nawaf Salam. He was promoted as a candidate for political consensus, as he is neither Najib Mikati, the candidate of Iran’s Party and its allies, nor Fouad Makhzoumi, the candidate of Samir Geagea's group, i.e. the opponents of Iran’s Party. Thus, Nawaf Salam was appointed Prime Minister in Lebanon.
5- Nawaf Salam was a candidate rejected by Iran’s party and the forces allied with it in Lebanon. Iran’s party rejected him in 2019 after the resignation of Saad Hariri and called him the "US candidate" at the time. Hassan Diab was appointed at the time, and the party rejected his nomination again in the same year after the Beirut port explosion on 4/8/2019.
6- It seems that this choice angered Iran’s party and the Amal Movement: Al Jazeera correspondent reported on 13/1/2025 that Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc did not nominate any candidate for the Lebanese prime minister. Following the meeting of Hezbollah bloc representatives with the Lebanese president to nominate a prime minister, the party’s representative, Muhammad Hassan Raad, expressed his regret and said that some are working to exclude and eliminate the group. He added, in statements to journalists, “We took a positive step in our meeting with the president of the republic, but we did not find the extended hand,” stressing that the group will act calmly and wisely in order to preserve the national interest.
A source close to Hezbollah reported that the party and its ally, the Amal Movement, led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, support the reappointment of Mikati as prime minister. He explained that the reappointment of Mikati is "part of the agreement reached with the Saudi envoy to Lebanon, Yazid bin Mohammed bin Fahd Al Farhan, which led to Hezbollah and Amal to proceed with the election of Aoun as president last Thursday." In the same context, the BBC reported on 13/1/2025 from the head of Iran’s Party bloc in parliament that the reappointment of Aoun is "part of the agreement reached with the Saudi envoy to Lebanon, which led to Hezbollah and Amal to proceed with the election of Aoun as president.”
Second: This was the path of events in Lebanon; the parliament elected a new president and appointed a new prime minister as well. Upon closer examination, we find the following:
1- We find that America is completely satisfied with the new political developments in Lebanon, or rather, it is the one responsible for them. President Biden said in a statement: “I congratulate him on his election as President of Lebanon,” and continued: “President Aoun will provide critical leadership as Lebanon and ‘Israel’ fully implement that cessation of hostilities and as hundreds of thousands of people return to their homes and Lebanon recovers and rebuilds. President Aoun has my confidence. I believe strongly he is the right leader for this time." (CNN Arabic, 9/1/2025). Also, America’s agent Mohammed bin Salman also congratulated him in Saudi Arabia (Al-Hurra, 1/9/2025).
2- Thus, the new political developments in Lebanon have no relation with the international conflict over it. Lebanon was in America’s hands during the presidency of Michel Aoun, who appeared as part of the Iranian axis. The current president, Joseph Aoun, was appointed commander of the army in 2017 by America’s agent, Michel Aoun. This means that the current president, Joseph Aoun, is originally from the crucible of America’s agents. In fact, America, before and after the presidency became vacant in 2022, provided military aid to the Lebanese army. This means that it has a close relationship with Army Commander Joseph Aoun. Nawaf Salam, who spent his life teaching and educating in French and American universities and international institutions, most recently as president of the International Court of Justice, cannot be outside this framework either.
3- Thus, America is today changing the rules of its game in Lebanon. After it used to rely on Iran, its axis, and the forces affiliated with it in Lebanon to consolidate its influence, today it is excluding these forces in favour of highlighting new figures to continue its influence in Lebanon. Lebanon was in America’s grip and still is, but America is changing its face and form.
4- As for the powers affiliated with the Europeans, they know that their power is less important than America’s power. France, through its participation in the five-member committee, rejected Joseph Aoun’s name as a presidential candidate since 2023 when his name was put forward early on by both the United States and Saudi Arabia (Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 22/9/2023), but it was eventually forced to accept him. On the other hand, the Europeans lack the influence to make the president subordinate to them. Samir Geagea, who has the largest Christian bloc in parliament, did not even declare his desire to run for the presidency in light of the strong opposition to his nomination from the Iran party. The Iran party said, “No veto on any name except Samir Geagea; because his project is destructive to Lebanon.” (Asharq Al-Awsat, 6/1/2025), and it also rejected the name of the candidate Fouad Makhzoumi for the prime ministership, which was put forward by opposition parties (RT, 13/1/2025). Therefore, the powers affiliated with the Europeans are unable to monopolize any of the three presidencies in Lebanon and these positions remain in the hands of America's followers.
5- However, the Europeans accept the new political developments in Lebanon, French President Emmanuel Macron congratulated Aoun on his election as President of Lebanon, in a tweet he posted on his account on the X platform. Macron saw that these elections “paves the way for reforms and the restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty and prosperity.” (Al-Hurra, 10/1/2025). The statement of the French President reflects the state of the European powers and their happiness with the decline of Iran’s shadow over Lebanon. Meaning that they are content with achieving part of their desires, which is to put Lebanon on a path far from Iran, and they are content with being present in the five-member committee to oversee the Lebanese affairs that was formed after the position of president became vacant, as France sits in it side by side with America, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, while Qatar represents the interests of the British in it.
That is, America is the dominant international player in Lebanon today, and it is the one who changes faces and forms, while the Europeans are content with all of that by removing the Iranian shadow from Lebanon.
Third: As for changing the face of Lebanon internally and externally, this is clear from the following matters:
1- As for internally in Lebanon, it is likely that the restrictions on the weapons of the Iranian party will increase, since the need for the "resistance" that previously accompanied the presidential statements and declarations in Lebanon has disappeared and was absent from the statements of the new president:
a- (Unlike the traditional speeches that characterized previous eras after the Lebanese civil war, Aoun's speech came loaded with clear messages, most notably his emphasis on the necessity of "establishing the state's right to monopolize weapons" as a basic pillar to strengthen Lebanon's sovereignty. (Al-Hurra, 10/1/2025). Aoun said in his speech: The Lebanese state - and I repeat the Lebanese state - will get rid of the ‘Israeli’ occupation. (CNN Arabic, 10/1/2025).
b- Nawaf Salam commented on the media leaks regarding the distribution of portfolios to the traditional parties and also proceeding according to the conditions of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, especially by granting them the Ministry of Finance... Salam added that he "did not commit to giving any portfolio to any party, as for the Ministry of Finance, it is like all other ministerial portfolios and is not the monopoly of a sect"... stressing that he is inclined towards a government of 24 ministers... (Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, January 21, 2025).
2- Externally, upon contemplating what is happening, the following is noted:
a- Unusually, Iran has not shown any role in choosing the president and prime minister, even though the essence of this role exists behind the positions of its party in Lebanon, and because Iran’s party and its allies can obstruct these developments and have not done so. Therefore, these American changes, which have been described as a coup, are taking place with Iran’s implicit approval. Iranian influence is actually declining from the Arab region. America has entrusted Turkey with the political solution in Syria, and has removed Iran from it, just as it has removed Russia from the Syrian equation completely. This is America’s new policy in the region, and this is what it did in Lebanon. It is not just the policy of the Biden administration, but the next administration has the same vision, and will work to deepen it in Syria and Lebanon and its extension to Iraq. This American policy is completely consistent with what the Jewish entity wants, and it may be one of the promises that the Biden administration made to the Jewish entity when it urged it to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon.
b- It seems that the new Lebanese president realizes that America is bringing him at this stage for major changes that will face Lebanon, President Aoun said at the beginning of his inauguration speech, "The honourable representatives have honoured me by electing me President of the Lebanese Republic, which is the greatest medal I bear and the greatest responsibility, so I became the first president after the first centenary of the establishment of the state of Greater Lebanon, in the midst of a Middle Eastern earthquake in which alliances have cracked, regimes have fallen, and borders may change." (Independent Arabia, 11/1/2025)). According to the same source, he will head to Saudi Arabia as his first foreign destination, “Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said today, Saturday, that Saudi Arabia will be his first foreign destination, after receiving an invitation to visit it during a phone call he made with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.”
c- It is also clear from all this that America is assigning Saudi Arabia to handle the Lebanese issue this time, after it was assigned to Iran previously. This is why the Saudi role will be prominent in Lebanese affairs, and it will have a hand in reconstruction, especially since it is expected that Iran will be subject to new commercial and financial pressures imposed on it by the Trump administration. So Saudi Arabia will be an alternative to Iran in Lebanon, from the political as well as financial aspect for reconstruction and supporting the state to strengthen its army and facilitate the disarmament of Iran’s party. This may drag Lebanon into normalization with the Jewish entity, especially since the next US President Trump is rushing Saudi normalization with the Jewish entity.
Fourth: This horrific situation is likely to continue in Lebanon and around Lebanon until Allah brings about a promised matter, then the Islamic state, the Khilafah (Caliphate) state, is established, and all these political forces will evaporate from Lebanon and around Lebanon, and with them the Jewish entity, just as the Assad regime evaporated from Syria. Then the land of Ash-Sham will return as it always was, to the beating heart of the entire Islamic Ummah. We are certain of the return of the Khilafah once again after this oppressive rule in which we live. Ahmad narrated on the authority of Hudhayfah who said: The Messenger of Allah (saw) said: «ثُمَّ تَكُونُ مُلْكاً جَبْرِيَّةً فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةً عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ. ثُمَّ سَكَتَ»“Then there will be an oppressive rule (ملكًا جبرية), and it will last for as long as Allah wishes, then He will lift it if He wishes. Then there will be a Khilafah on the method of Prophethood.” Then he (saw) fell silent”.
Wherever it is established, it will reach Ash-Sham and settles there. Al-Tabarani narrated on the authority of Salamah bin Nufayl, who said: The Messenger of Allah (saw) said: «عُقْرُ دَارِ الإِسْلامِ بِالشَّامِ»“The heart of the abode of Islam is in Ash-Sham”.
It will fight the Jews and remove their entity occupying the blessed land and will bring back Palestine completely to the abode of Islam, and tomorrow is near for those who see it. But the law of Allah has required that He (swt) does not send down angels from the sky to establish for us a Khilafah (Caliphate) that fights our enemy while we are sitting, but rather He (swt) sends down His angels as reinforcements and good tidings of His victory to men who believed in their Lord and He increased them in guidance, to Muslim soldiers, patient in war, protected by their Imam and fight behind him their enemies. And then we will be among those who deserve the realization of the glad tidings:
[نَصْرٌ مِنَ اللهِ وَفَتْحٌ قَرِيبٌ وَبَشِّرِ الْمُؤْمِنِينَ]
“… Help from Allah and an imminent victory. ˹So˺ give good news ˹O Prophet˺ to the believers” [As-Saf: 13].